BC Election 2013

Provincial polling released by Forum Research, but published on the Vancouver Province had the following salient information:

988 sampled; automated phone polling; regionally weighted, conducted on January 23, 2012.

Voting intentions:
BC NDP: 39%
BC Liberals: 26%
BC Conservatives: 22%
BC Greens: 9%
… implying 4% as “other”.

The only other data point concerning Forum Research polling was their December 15 survey, of which the results are roughly consistent with the previous poll. I find it somewhat frustrating that I cannot get access to the detailed survey results which would have given some more information on methodology and how they regionally weighted the results. Without this information, it is very difficult to get a feel of how much basis to put into these polling numbers.

I notice they do offer a projected seat split, with 57 seats for the NDP, 20 for the BC Liberals, 7 for the BC Conservatives and 1 for Vicki Huntington in Delta South. These numbers are somewhat consistent with a first-line pass of the popular vote, but geography starts to become much more of a focus when translating popular vote results to seats. I would not put much stock into this projection without seeing more information.

The general trend of this poll and others is that the BC Liberals have sunk far, far behind the NDP. This is not surprising considering the last year of events. Will it get better or worse for them?

According to a Vancouver Sun and CTV article, Forum Research released the results of a poll. It is not known who commissioned the poll or any more detailed information than what was reported in the respective articles, but the salient information is as follows:

1045 people surveyed by telephone; standard error 3%; all people surveyed on December 15, 2011.

Indicated voting intention is as follows:

BC NDP: 34%
BC Liberals: 23%
BC Conservatives: 23%
BC Greens: 15%
… implying 5% as “other”.

This survey is consistent with others showing a steady erosion of the BC Liberal support base; this survey does show an increased amount of support for the BC Conservatives and a slight cannibalization of NDP support to the Conservatives as well, which may be interesting.

The other result is the relatively high performance of the BC Green party, which has always tended to be a proxy for vote parking for undecided voters, but is consistent with the previous poll (Oraclepoll Research in late November).

As there is limited information on the poll details and also this is the first time I have seen Forum Research do a BC provincial poll, I will reserve further judgement until we see them release another poll in the future. My intuition suggests that this poll overstates BC Conservative and BC Green support, at least at present.

I have been out on a 6-week vacation and hence was not around to post the various transgressions in the provincial political realm until now.

The first data point is a survey commissioned by Integrity BC, hiring Oraclepoll Research to do a survey on various BC political issues. The link to the detailed report is here: (their link, local link).

Salient information is that the survey was conducted with a 600 person sample, standard error is 4%, conducted November 22-25, 2011 by telephone.

When people were asked as to their voting intentions, 12% were undecided and the remainder (normalized result) stated as follows:

BC NDP: 44%
BC Liberals: 25%
BC Greens: 16%
BC Conservatives: 15%

Although the sample space is relatively small, this does generally confirm the slide in BC Liberal support that has been happening since Premier Christy Clark has taken office. The Green Party would be ecstatic at this level of support, but other polls currently do not confirm this level of support.

I generally am not going to over-analyze this poll given the sample space and the intent of the poll (to market Integrity BC’s name out in the media), but will include this in the polling statistics.

In an Angus Reid public opinion poll (their link, local link) conducted from October 31 to November 1, sampling 803 people has the following voter intentions:

BC NDP – 40%
BC Liberal – 31%
BC Conservatives – 18%
BC Greens – 8%
Other – 3%

Metro Vancouver: NDP 43 / BCL 31 / CON 17 / GRN 7 / Other 3
Vancouver Island: NDP 39 / BCL 30 / CON 18 / GRN 11 / Other 2
Interior: NDP 35 / BCL 34 / CON 20 / GRN 8 / Other 4
North: NDP 37 / BCL 34 / CON 20 / GRN 8 / Other 0

Analysis

The last Angus Reid poll was back in March 2011 and I commented that there was a “honeymoon” period for Christy Clark. Now that reality has set in for the government, their existing numbers are showing significant erosion to John Cummins and the Conservatives.

The survey kindly provided a breakdown of the 2009 election voters vs. the current survey, where 8% of the people that voted for the NDP in 2009 now stated they lean Conservative, while 21% of BC Liberal voters in 2009 stated they are currently leaning Conservative.

The Greens continue to be a marginal force. I wonder if Jane Sterk is considering an Elizabeth May strategy of “putting all your eggs to win a single seat” – with the notable exception that her party is financially unable to mount such a strategy.

The regional split figures are not too surprising given the overall results.

The big alarming statistic in the poll is that Adrian Dix‘s approval rating is virtually at the same level as Premier Christy Clark‘s rating (40% vs. 39%, respectively) – this spells big trouble for the BC Liberals. The line of “a vote for the Conservatives is a vote for the NDP” is not going to work simply because the NDP have their own motivated voting block which should propel them into government. The question at this point appears to be: who is going to form the official opposition?

If I was odds-making, even before this survey, I would estimate the NDP has about an 80-85% chance of forming the next government in May 2013. There are a couple ways which I believe would sink the NDP’s chances from present, but I do not believe that Adrian Dix will fall into the traps that the government will inevitably set in 2012 – one of which is the handling the collective bargaining agreements that are up for negotiation. Carole James would have taken the bait, but not Dix.

Port Moody-Coquitlam By-Election

The ultimate confirmation of these numbers are going to be the results of the upcoming by-election in the Port Moody-Coquitlam riding. Iain Black resigned on October 3, 2011 and the Premier has six months to call a by-election. Despite the recent poll numbers, quantitatively on my books the riding would lean BC Liberal, albeit very narrowly. Qualitatively, I would give it to the NDP narrowly. In such narrow elections, I would have to wait for the candidates to be known.

If the Conservatives run a candidate in this election (which I generally believe would be a mistake on their part), it may provide ammunition for the BC Liberals in the event of a narrow NDP victory that a vote for the Conservatives is a vote for the NDP. The only way the Conservatives can win in such a by-election is if they run a candidate and come in first or second. I don’t see that happening.

Seat projections

Using some black magic, I offer the following seat projection given the numbers from the Angus Reid Poll. I will do a riding-by-riding projection sometime in 2012 after the by-election.

BC NDP – 60 seats (40%)
BC Liberals – 16 seats (31%)
BC Conservatives – 7 seats (18%)
BC Greens – 0 seats (8%)
Independents – 2 seats (Vicki Huntington, Delta South; Bob Simpson, Cariboo North assuming the NDP does not run a candidate) (3%)