A poll conducted by Angus Reid Strategies from March 13 to 15, 2010 had the following provincial results (Source Data):
NDP – 43%
BC Liberal – 35%
Green – 13%
Conservative – 6%
905 people were sampled, error factor of 3.3%.
These results are not surprising given the backlash over the HST.
Since the next election is over three years away, I doubt the government are shivering in their boots at this moment – their biggest fear at this moment is potential vote splitting if the BC Conservative party has a surge like the Wildrose Alliance has in Alberta. However, the provincial dynamics are much different in British Columbia.
Of note is the following geographic split:
GVRD – NDP 49%, BC Liberal 35%, Green 11%, Conservative 3%
Vancouver Island – NDP 44%, BC Liberal 29%, Green 20%, Conservative 5%
Interior – NDP 36%, BC Liberal 36%, Green 13%, Conservative 8%
North – NDP 28%, BC Liberal 43%, Green 7%, Conservative 18%
Reading the tea leaves, the NDP would be able to form a rough 55 seat majority government if this result materialized in a general election. Of note is the leaderless and media-unsavvy BC Conservative party being able to poll above the noise factor in the North and Interior.