An Angus Reid poll, surveying 800 people from April 12 to 14, has the following voter intentions:
NDP – 47%
BC Liberal – 29%
Green – 14%
Conservative – 5%
This is not surprising considering all of the negative news out for the existing government – the two headlines mainly being the upcoming HST, Kash Heed‘s resignation due to the election scandal.
An estimated seat count, given such a popular vote result would be the NDP realizing an approximate 60 seat majority. It becomes easier to hand-pick the seats the BC Liberals could retain with such a result:
Abbotsford South
Abbotsford West
Abbotsford-Mission
Chilliwack-Hope
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
Fort Langley-Aldergrove
Kamloops-South Thompson
Kelowna-Lake Country
Kelowna-Mission
Langley
Nechako Lakes
North Vancouver-Seymour
Peace River North
Peace River South
Prince George-Mackenzie
Richmond Centre
Richmond East
Richmond-Steveston
Surrey-Cloverdale
Surrey-White Rock
Vancouver-False Creek
Vancouver-Langara
Vancouver-Quilchena
West Vancouver-Capilano
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky
Westside-Kelowna
The only good news if you are a BC Liberal supporter is that the next election is 3 years and 1 month away (or 3 years and 7 months away if they extend the fixed election date to October), which is potentially a lot of time to perform some damage control over the political hit they are presently taking.
The other interesting question in the poll was:
Suppose a new provincial party with a centre-left ideology were created in British Columbia. Which party would you vote for in the next provincial election, scheduled for May 2013? – Decided Voters
The new party with a centre-left ideology 34%
BC New Democratic Party (NDP) 28%
BC Liberals 23%
BC Green Party 8%
Other Party / Independent 7%Suppose a new provincial party with a centre-right ideology were created in British Columbia. Which party would you vote for in the next provincial election, scheduled for May 2013? – Decided Voters
BC New Democratic Party (NDP) 37%
The new party with a centre-right ideology 30%
BC Liberals 15%
BC Green Party 11%
Other Party / Independent 6%
The purpose of these two questions shows how supportive of the parties the electorate is – a BC Liberal supporter, asked whether they will support a centre-left party, will still support the BC Liberals 23% (compared to 27% in the general poll). About half of the voters slip to a mythical centre-right party (15% from 27%).
NDP supporters, on the other hand, if faced with a centre-right party, will migrate 10% from 47% to 37%. With a centre-left party, they will migrate from 47% to 34%. So it shows that the NDP’s voter base is a lot more solid.