Archive for April, 2010

Angus Reid has NDP ahead by 18%

18 April, 2010 | | 2 Comments

An Angus Reid poll, surveying 800 people from April 12 to 14, has the following voter intentions:

(Full poll results)

NDP – 47%
BC Liberal – 29%
Green – 14%
Conservative – 5%

This is not surprising considering all of the negative news out for the existing government – the two headlines mainly being the upcoming HST, Kash Heed‘s resignation due to the election scandal.

An estimated seat count, given such a popular vote result would be the NDP realizing an approximate 60 seat majority. It becomes easier to hand-pick the seats the BC Liberals could retain with such a result:

Abbotsford South
Abbotsford West
Abbotsford-Mission
Chilliwack-Hope
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
Fort Langley-Aldergrove
Kamloops-South Thompson
Kelowna-Lake Country
Kelowna-Mission
Langley
Nechako Lakes
North Vancouver-Seymour
Peace River North
Peace River South
Prince George-Mackenzie
Richmond Centre
Richmond East
Richmond-Steveston
Surrey-Cloverdale
Surrey-White Rock
Vancouver-False Creek
Vancouver-Langara
Vancouver-Quilchena
West Vancouver-Capilano
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky
Westside-Kelowna

The only good news if you are a BC Liberal supporter is that the next election is 3 years and 1 month away (or 3 years and 7 months away if they extend the fixed election date to October), which is potentially a lot of time to perform some damage control over the political hit they are presently taking.

The other interesting question in the poll was:

Suppose a new provincial party with a centre-left ideology were created in British Columbia. Which party would you vote for in the next provincial election, scheduled for May 2013? – Decided Voters

The new party with a centre-left ideology 34%
BC New Democratic Party (NDP) 28%
BC Liberals 23%
BC Green Party 8%
Other Party / Independent 7%

Suppose a new provincial party with a centre-right ideology were created in British Columbia. Which party would you vote for in the next provincial election, scheduled for May 2013? – Decided Voters

BC New Democratic Party (NDP) 37%
The new party with a centre-right ideology 30%
BC Liberals 15%
BC Green Party 11%
Other Party / Independent 6%

The purpose of these two questions shows how supportive of the parties the electorate is – a BC Liberal supporter, asked whether they will support a centre-left party, will still support the BC Liberals 23% (compared to 27% in the general poll). About half of the voters slip to a mythical centre-right party (15% from 27%).

NDP supporters, on the other hand, if faced with a centre-right party, will migrate 10% from 47% to 37%. With a centre-left party, they will migrate from 47% to 34%. So it shows that the NDP’s voter base is a lot more solid.

2009 Party Annual Finance Reports Released

9 April, 2010 | | 2 Comments

Elections BC released all of the registered political parties 2009 annual financing reports today. The Conservative party failed to file on time – they have until June 30 (and a $100 fine) to file, otherwise they risk de-registration. I will summarize the financial data for the BC Liberal, NDP and Green Party. I’d appreciate attribution if you found the information in this analysis to be useful.

BC Liberals:
The BC Liberals spent about $16.6 million in 2009 (net of transfers). They raised $12.3 million from contributors, and have incurred $4.9 million in debt at the end of the year. They are receiving a rate of prime plus 2.25% which is currently 4.5%.

Individuals contributed 21% of the BC Liberal revenues, while corporations contributed 64% of the revenues.

NDP:
The NDP spent $9.4 million in 2009 (net of transfers). They raised $6.9 million from contributors, and ended the year with $2.2 million in debt. They are receiving a rate of between 3.25% to 4.5% on multiple loans.

Individuals contributed 63% of the NDP revenues, while trade unions contributed 32% of the revenues.

Green:
The Green party spent and raised about $190,000 in 2009. They incurred no debt at the end of the year.

Individuals contributed 94% of the revenues.

Summary thoughts:

The largest line-item entry is the amount of bank debt the BC Liberal party has incurred after the election. They have about a $4.9 million debt at the end of 2009. At their current level of debt, this will result in an interest bite of about $220,000/year, and this will rise later in the year when the Bank of Canada will raise rates.

It is always surprising to know the NDP manages to get a lower rate of interest on their bank debt.

The split of where revenues are coming from is surprising – most people have the impression that the NDP is funded by union donations, but they are funded 2/3rds by individual donors. The union donors are about a quarter of the revenues. The BC Liberal party, on the other hand, are 2/3rds funded by corporate donors, which corresponds to the public perception. Individual donors to the BC Liberal contribute about a fifth of their revenues.

The BC Liberal party, in general, was able to substantially fund all ridings the maximum amount of spending allowed in the election campaign – 85 ridings times $70,000 is $5.95 million. The NDP were able to sufficiently fund winnable seats, but safe BC Liberal seats were dramatically underfunded.

The Green Party raised a modest amount, but they are still not at the critical mass where they can maintain a full-time staff for party purposes. They did manage to end the year debt-free, presumably because no financial institution would want to lend them a substantial sum of money for election purposes.

Data tables:
The following are tables that outline the two-year summaries from the major parties. Please note the categories might have slight differences between 2008 and 2009, and there may be some minor transcription errors.

BC Liberals:

Party BC Liberal BC Liberal
Year 2008 2009
Current Assets $           1,019,817 $              454,840
Fixed Assets $              565,322 $              498,396
Total Assets $           1,585,139 $              953,236
Current Liabilities $           1,307,714 $           2,654,705
Long-Term Liabilities $                21,130 $           2,807,018
Total Liabilities $           1,328,844 $           5,461,723
Equity $              256,295 $          (4,508,487)
Info: Current Debt $                       - $           2,154,000
Info: Long-dated Debt $                       - $           2,777,000
Info: Rates Prime+2.25%
Revenues
Political Contributions $           7,880,200 $          11,980,418
Gross Fundraising Revenues $              334,889 $              299,379
Total Transfers Received $                  5,590 $           1,020,830
Interest Income $                12,547 $                       -
Product Sales $                    419 $                  3,158
Advertising Income $                       - $                       -
Rental Income $                       - $                       -
Other Income $                 (7,040) $               (18,510)
Total Revenues $           8,226,605 $          13,285,275
Expenses
Account and Audit $                43,318 $                43,771
Amortization $              191,300 $              196,013
Bad Debt $                       - $                       -
Bank Charges $              103,805 $              161,784
Donations and Gifts $                       - $                       -
Convention, Workshop, Meeting $              634,771 $                94,744
Data Processing / IT $                86,129 $              226,315
Furniture / Equipment $                  4,680 $                50,047
Insurance $                10,051 $                13,520
Interest Expense $                31,637 $              150,388
Media Advertising $              866,508 $              428,735
Newsletters / Promotional $                68,782 $                21,131
Office Rent / Utilities $              193,819 $              261,027
Office Supplies / Stationary $                71,999 $                33,058
Postage / Courier $                34,270 $                36,252
Printing $                       - $                       -
Professional Services $              242,103 $              310,236
Research and Polling $              617,692 $              280,280
Salaries and Benefits $           1,778,206 $           1,503,279
Social Functions $                27,995 $                19,819
Subscriptions $                  6,357 $                  4,204
Telecommunications $              231,317 $              213,023
Travel $              466,270 $              289,424
Utilities & maintenance $                       - $                       -
Cost of Fundraising $           1,227,541 $              994,954
Transfers Out $              218,184 $           6,155,394
Other Expenses $           1,320,814 $           6,160,456
Total Expenses $           8,477,548 $          17,647,854
Surplus/Deficit $             (250,943) $          (4,362,579)
Donors
Individual <= $250 $              432,527 $              468,027
Individual > $250 $           1,905,658 $           2,093,626
Corporate <= $250 $                41,317 $                85,573
Corporate > $250 $           4,667,007 $           7,592,114
Unincorporated <= $250 $                  8,778 $                13,479
Unincorporated > $250 $              480,728 $              954,135
Trade Unions <= $250 $                       - $                       -
Trade Unions > $250 $                  3,040 $                30,120
Non-Profit Org. <= $250 $                       - $                       -
Non-Profit Org. > $250 $                       - $                       -
Other <= $250 $                  1,675 $                  1,660
Other > $250 $              329,470 $              731,684

NDP:

Party NDP NDP
Year 2008 2009
Current Assets $              538,003 $              247,082
Fixed Assets $           1,511,302 $           1,550,498
Total Assets $           2,049,306 $           1,797,580
Current Liabilities $              260,544 $              936,288
Long-Term Liabilities $              775,144 $           2,231,986
Total Liabilities $           1,035,688 $           3,168,275
Equity $           1,013,617 $          (1,370,694)
Info: Current Debt $                       - $                       -
Info: Long-dated Debt $              624,468 $           2,231,986
Info: Rates 5.4% 3.25% to 4.50%
Revenues
Political Contributions $           2,869,389 $           6,712,354
Gross Fundraising Revenues $              116,253 $              183,342
Total Transfers Received $                22,147 $                64,135
Interest Income $                  1,512 $                        6
Product Sales $                  2,016 $                  3,085
Advertising Income $                19,918 $                39,336
Rental Income $                       - $                       -
Other Income $              106,032 $              100,111
Total Revenues $           3,137,267 $           7,102,370
Expenses
Account and Audit $                65,984 $                78,870
Amortization $                68,683 $                89,283
Bad Debt $                       - $                  2,079
Bank Charges $                23,865 $                64,396
Donations and Gifts $                       - $                       -
Convention, Workshop, Meeting $              173,260 $              319,191
Data Processing / IT $                       - $                96,326
Furniture / Equipment $                  2,403 $                22,276
Insurance $                  6,210 $                  6,576
Interest Expense $                32,442 $                73,801
Media Advertising $                56,208 $           1,988,587
Newsletters / Promotional $                13,775 $              357,389
Office Rent / Utilities $                       - $                68,266
Office Supplies / Stationary $                75,370 $                51,697
Postage / Courier $                89,002 $                38,294
Printing $                92,116 $                       -
Professional Services $                76,371 $              100,466
Research and Polling $              182,676 $              323,735
Salaries and Benefits $           1,396,601 $           2,366,141
Social Functions $                  4,606 $                15,689
Subscriptions $                       - $                       -
Telecommunications $                44,673 $                82,136
Travel $                85,098 $              574,275
Utilities & maintenance $                60,819 $                       -
Cost of Fundraising $              185,942 $              315,805
Transfers Out $              495,448 $           2,337,675
Other Expenses $                67,121 $              113,727
Total Expenses $           3,298,672 $           9,486,681
Surplus/Deficit $             (161,405) $          (2,384,312)
Donors
Individual <= $250 $           1,229,979 $           1,704,315
Individual > $250 $           1,057,957 $           2,548,173
Corporate <= $250 $                  6,175 $                16,823
Corporate > $250 $                32,400 $              238,838
Unincorporated <= $250 $                    500 $                  1,286
Unincorporated > $250 $                  1,450 $                11,485
Trade Unions <= $250 $                  2,660 $                  4,480
Trade Unions > $250 $              524,585 $           2,170,457
Non-Profit Org. <= $250 $                      75 $                  1,150
Non-Profit Org. > $250 $                  6,100 $                  9,100
Other <= $250 $                    220 $                    200
Other > $250 $                  1,500 $                    500

Green:

Party Green Green
Year 2008 2009
Current Assets $                28,139 $                31,322
Fixed Assets $                    985 $                       -
Total Assets $                29,125 $                31,322
Current Liabilities $                  2,022 $                    500
Long-Term Liabilities $                  1,550 $                       -
Total Liabilities $                  3,572 $                    500
Equity $                25,553 $                30,822
Info: Current Debt $                       - $                       -
Info: Long-dated Debt $                       - $                       -
Info: Rates
Revenues
Political Contributions $              145,928 $              181,240
Gross Fundraising Revenues $                  1,330 $                  1,396
Total Transfers Received $                18,672 $                10,828
Interest Income $                      18 $                      18
Product Sales $                      23 $                      75
Advertising Income $                       - $                       -
Rental Income $                       - $                       -
Other Income $                  1,003 $                        6
Total Revenues $              166,974 $              193,563
Expenses
Account and Audit $                12,718 $                17,588
Amortization $                    985
Bad Debt $                       -
Bank Charges $                    747 $                    565
Donations and Gifts $                      85 $                      60
Convention, Workshop, Meeting $                  8,727 $                  7,322
Data Processing / IT $                  3,268 $                  3,420
Furniture / Equipment $                  1,885 $                    538
Insurance $                  1,400 $                  1,550
Interest Expense $                    815 $                    145
Media Advertising $                    370 $                  4,675
Newsletters / Promotional $                  1,676 $                  7,308
Office Rent / Utilities $                11,369 $                11,589
Office Supplies / Stationary $                  8,548 $                  2,889
Postage / Courier $                  5,354 $                  7,040
Printing $                       - $                       -
Professional Services $                28,556 $                27,009
Research and Polling $                      20 $                       -
Salaries and Benefits $                21,194 $                31,440
Social Functions $                  1,593
Subscriptions $                       -
Telecommunications $                11,614 $                13,360
Travel $                  5,508 $                19,943
Utilities & maintenance $                       - $                       -
Cost of Fundraising $                    614 $                    500
Transfers Out $                    305 $                26,726
Other Expenses $                  4,866 $                  1,050
Total Expenses $              129,641 $              187,294
Surplus/Deficit $                37,333 $                  6,269
Donors
Individual <= $250 $                74,365 $                83,508
Individual > $250 $                67,163 $                87,332
Corporate <= $250 $                    400 $                    470
Corporate > $250 $                  3,930 $                  9,930
Unincorporated <= $250 $                       - $                       -
Unincorporated > $250 $                       - $                       -
Trade Unions <= $250 $                       - $                       -
Trade Unions > $250 $                       - $                       -
Non-Profit Org. <= $250 $                       - $                       -
Non-Profit Org. > $250 $                       - $                       -
Other <= $250 $                       - $                       -
Other > $250 $                       - $                       -