Mustel has a poll out with the following attributes:
500 polled; 12% undecided, May 6-16, 2010:
NDP 44%
BC Liberal 32%
Green 13%
BC Conservatives 7%
Other 3%
The results are self-explanatory. However, the sample size is small enough to the point that one can’t really make any more inferences than they could with the previous Angus Reid poll, which had roughly the same results.
If an election were held with this popular vote, I’d estimate the NDP would get around a 60 seat government, and BC Liberals 25 seats. I still don’t see any seats for the Greens or the Conservatives. As the Green party has diffuse voter concentration (especially with their largest strengths around West Vancouver and the Gulf Islands / Sooke area), I’d start taking them as serious contenders for seats at around 15% provincially, while the Conservatives are more concentrated (i.e. having no presence whatsoever on Vancouver Island and the GVRD) and I’d start taking them seriously for seats at around 10% provincially. These results are very close to the point where they might be able to grab seats in 2013, but there are a lot of political dynamics that have yet to be played out between now and then. In particular, a measuring stick would be a by-election in a Green or Conservative-friendly electoral district.