A new Angus Reid Public Opinion Poll (their link, local copy), taken from June 1 to June 6, 2010 and with a sample space of 1,612 people has the following findings:
Voter intention:
NDP 46%
BC Liberal 26%
Green 14%
BC Conservatives 8%
The geographical split (note numbers are NDP/BCL/GRN/CON, and without any split of the representative sample, and the number of ridings in [square brackets]):
GVRD [46]: 46/27/15/5
Vancouver Island [15]: 54/18/16/9
Interior [16]: 43/30/7/16
North [8]: 34/35/18/7
I am a little suspicious at the “North” number of 18% support for the Greens, as this does not intuitively jive up with historical results of the area (traditionally, Green party support in this area has been weak). The definition of “North” that Angus Reid Public Opinion used for the 2009 election was “… the six ridings along highway 16 and the two in the peace”.
Given this vote distribution, a seat projection would be roughly:
NDP: 62
BC Liberal: 21
Conservative: 1 (Boundary-Similkameen would be in contention)
Ind: 1 (Delta South – the poll doesn’t reflect this, but this would obviously be the case)
Please note this is only a mathematical projection given vote differentials and I did not do any “fine tuning” other than the Delta South insertion. It is far more likely there will be considerable vote volatility in the Interior/North seats of the province.