An Angus Reid Public Opinion poll (their copy, local copy), conducted from July 6 to July 8, sample size 801 people has the following results for voting intention:
NDP: 46%
BC Liberal: 23%
Greens: 14%
Conservatives: 8%
This is the biggest polling differential between the two parties since the 2001 election. The regional split is the following:
Lower Mainland: NDP 41 / BCL 28 / GRN 16 / CON 8
Vancouver Island: NDP 67 / BCL 7 / GRN 12 / CON 5
Southern Interior: NDP 43 / BCL 21 / GRN 13 / CON 11
Northern Interior: NDP 36 / BCL 26 / GRN 13 / CON 12
Extrapolating all of this data into a seat count, I would estimate:
NDP – 66
BCL – 18
IND – 1 (Vicki Huntington, Delta South)
The BC Conservatives would possibly have a chance at two seats (the regional split now makes Boundary-Similkameen a probable NDP seat, compared to the poll before which makes it a probable seat for the Conservatives, while the Peace River area would also have a chance for a Conservative seat, although not probable), and the model assumes Vicki Huntington runs in Delta South again. The model also assumes that there is no change between now and 2.8 years from now, when the next fixed election date is presently.
Note I say “presently” since I find it will be extremely likely that the government will vote to change its fixed election date to the autumn, extending its life by another 5 months. They will claim (validly) that it is to fix the issue with supplementary estimates in an election year – it creates an unnecessary amount of work.