Angus Reid Poll – NDP 46%, BCL 23%
An Angus Reid Public Opinion poll (their copy, local copy), conducted from July 6 to July 8, sample size 801 people has the following results for voting intention:
NDP: 46%
BC Liberal: 23%
Greens: 14%
Conservatives: 8%
This is the biggest polling differential between the two parties since the 2001 election. The regional split is the following:
Lower Mainland: NDP 41 / BCL 28 / GRN 16 / CON 8
Vancouver Island: NDP 67 / BCL 7 / GRN 12 / CON 5
Southern Interior: NDP 43 / BCL 21 / GRN 13 / CON 11
Northern Interior: NDP 36 / BCL 26 / GRN 13 / CON 12
Extrapolating all of this data into a seat count, I would estimate:
NDP – 66
BCL – 18
IND – 1 (Vicki Huntington, Delta South)
The BC Conservatives would possibly have a chance at two seats (the regional split now makes Boundary-Similkameen a probable NDP seat, compared to the poll before which makes it a probable seat for the Conservatives, while the Peace River area would also have a chance for a Conservative seat, although not probable), and the model assumes Vicki Huntington runs in Delta South again. The model also assumes that there is no change between now and 2.8 years from now, when the next fixed election date is presently.
Note I say “presently” since I find it will be extremely likely that the government will vote to change its fixed election date to the autumn, extending its life by another 5 months. They will claim (validly) that it is to fix the issue with supplementary estimates in an election year – it creates an unnecessary amount of work.
(July 14, 2010 @ 11:47):
NDP: 46% (+4% from election)
BC Liberal: 23% (-23% from election)
Greens: 14% (+6% from election)
Conservatives: 8% (+6% from election)
OTHER/IND: 9% (+7.5% from election)
Interesting to note that the NDP is not the prime beneficiary of the Liberal vote drift taking in only 4%. The Greens, Conservatives, and OTHER/IND at just under 20% are where former Liberal voters are now parking.
And yes, ARS has confirmed that the 9% represents other/ind albeit it is not expressly indicated in their poll figures, which only adds up to 91%.
72 per cent of respondents now have an even lower opinion of Campbell than they did three months ago. One wonders whether the Liberals have ‘bottom-out’ yet. Obviously Campbell is having a major negative impact upon Liberal fortunes.
The NDP seems to hit a glass ceiling at ~46% whereas during the late 1990′s the Liberal’s support was approaching the 70% level in Mustel surveys.
(July 18, 2010 @ 13:10):
I’m pondering what exactly would happen on the North Shore and in the gulf islands. Being the biased green. I can’t help but think that the Greens could easily take West Vancouver or the islands (especially given the 6 point lead on the island). Any thoughts Sacha?
(July 20, 2010 @ 16:41):
You will need to have enough NDPers angry enough with the NDP to vote Green in order to make this happen. The two West Van ridings are so strongly BC Liberal that most of the Green vote you are seeing there are protest votes.
(July 20, 2010 @ 16:48):
They might be protest votes but the second place in WV Sea to Sky does show that the Greens are seen as the primary alternative.
(July 26, 2010 @ 08:07):
Angus Reid has another poll coming out with the same questions as the last one, so we shall see if the Libs are still free-falling. I answered this one as well, and it closed on July 22 so results should be any day now.