In an Angus Reid public opinion poll (their link, local link) conducted from October 31 to November 1, sampling 803 people has the following voter intentions:
BC NDP – 40%
BC Liberal – 31%
BC Conservatives – 18%
BC Greens – 8%
Other – 3%
Metro Vancouver: NDP 43 / BCL 31 / CON 17 / GRN 7 / Other 3
Vancouver Island: NDP 39 / BCL 30 / CON 18 / GRN 11 / Other 2
Interior: NDP 35 / BCL 34 / CON 20 / GRN 8 / Other 4
North: NDP 37 / BCL 34 / CON 20 / GRN 8 / Other 0
Analysis
The last Angus Reid poll was back in March 2011 and I commented that there was a “honeymoon” period for Christy Clark. Now that reality has set in for the government, their existing numbers are showing significant erosion to John Cummins and the Conservatives.
The survey kindly provided a breakdown of the 2009 election voters vs. the current survey, where 8% of the people that voted for the NDP in 2009 now stated they lean Conservative, while 21% of BC Liberal voters in 2009 stated they are currently leaning Conservative.
The Greens continue to be a marginal force. I wonder if Jane Sterk is considering an Elizabeth May strategy of “putting all your eggs to win a single seat” – with the notable exception that her party is financially unable to mount such a strategy.
The regional split figures are not too surprising given the overall results.
The big alarming statistic in the poll is that Adrian Dix‘s approval rating is virtually at the same level as Premier Christy Clark‘s rating (40% vs. 39%, respectively) – this spells big trouble for the BC Liberals. The line of “a vote for the Conservatives is a vote for the NDP” is not going to work simply because the NDP have their own motivated voting block which should propel them into government. The question at this point appears to be: who is going to form the official opposition?
If I was odds-making, even before this survey, I would estimate the NDP has about an 80-85% chance of forming the next government in May 2013. There are a couple ways which I believe would sink the NDP’s chances from present, but I do not believe that Adrian Dix will fall into the traps that the government will inevitably set in 2012 – one of which is the handling the collective bargaining agreements that are up for negotiation. Carole James would have taken the bait, but not Dix.
Port Moody-Coquitlam By-Election
The ultimate confirmation of these numbers are going to be the results of the upcoming by-election in the Port Moody-Coquitlam riding. Iain Black resigned on October 3, 2011 and the Premier has six months to call a by-election. Despite the recent poll numbers, quantitatively on my books the riding would lean BC Liberal, albeit very narrowly. Qualitatively, I would give it to the NDP narrowly. In such narrow elections, I would have to wait for the candidates to be known.
If the Conservatives run a candidate in this election (which I generally believe would be a mistake on their part), it may provide ammunition for the BC Liberals in the event of a narrow NDP victory that a vote for the Conservatives is a vote for the NDP. The only way the Conservatives can win in such a by-election is if they run a candidate and come in first or second. I don’t see that happening.
Seat projections
Using some black magic, I offer the following seat projection given the numbers from the Angus Reid Poll. I will do a riding-by-riding projection sometime in 2012 after the by-election.
BC NDP – 60 seats (40%)
BC Liberals – 16 seats (31%)
BC Conservatives – 7 seats (18%)
BC Greens – 0 seats (8%)
Independents – 2 seats (Vicki Huntington, Delta South; Bob Simpson, Cariboo North assuming the NDP does not run a candidate) (3%)
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