BC Election 2013

A poll commissioned by the Independent Contractors and Businesses Association, conducted by NRG Research Group (link) had the following salient details:

Conducted February 7, 2012 to February 12, 2012, 600 sampled;

Party support:
BC NDP – 42%
BC Liberal – 36%
BC Conservatives – 13%
BC Greens – 10%

Without any polling methodology or detailed numbers (i.e. who was sampled, questions asked, etc.), these results can be treated with a grain of salt. With the sample size and error bounds, it is vaguely consistent with other polls.

If you are looking to make some headlines with a poll, it is always best to keep your sample sizes low, and to repeat the poll many times, and you will find the result you are looking for when you take it to the newspapers.

An Ipsos-Reid poll conducted between February 1, 2012 to February 5, 2012 sampling 1000 people had the following result for voting intentions (normalized to excluded undecided people):

BC NDP – 44%
BC Liberals – 32%
BC Conservatives – 16%
BC Greens – 7%

Excluded were 20% undecideds and assuming the sample was randomized and using a normal distribution at 95% confidence gives an error range of 3.1%.

The other poll Ipsos did was back in early October. The differences between polling have the BC Liberals down slightly while the BC Conservatives up slightly, but both within the standard margin of error.

There is nothing surprising about this poll in relation to previous polls. There may be more noise coming down the pipeline with respect to the upcoming legislative session, which starts on February 14, 2012.

In an Angus Reid public opinion poll (their link, local link) conducted from January 27 to January 29, 2012, sampling 800 people has the following voter intentions:

BC NDP – 42%
BC Liberal – 28%
BC Conservatives – 19%
BC Greens – 10%
Other – 1%

Metro Vancouver: NDP 42 / BCL 27 / CON 20 / GRN 10 / Other 1
Vancouver Island: NDP 51 / BCL 27 / CON 12 / GRN 9 / Other 1
Interior: NDP 37 / BCL 30 / CON 20 / GRN 12 / Other 0
North: NDP 43 / BCL 27 / CON 17 / GRN 3 / Other 10

Analysis

This poll is roughly consistent with the results of the previous Angus Reid survey at the end of October – the NDP are solidly in the lead, and it would be virtually equivalent to giving up the government if the Premier were to call a general election today.

The big change, which the media picked up on, from the previous poll is not necessarily the voting intention (which is within the margin of error of the previous poll and consistent with other polls performed recently), but rather the shift in perception about Adrian Dix‘s suitability for being premier – up from 19% to 26%.

The other strange anomaly was the Northern BC vote sample for “Other” candidates – if distributed correctly, the sample for the north would be around 80 to 100 people and that means that 8 to 10 people marked down “Other/Independent” as their preferred candidate. Is something brewing there?

Because I am actively involved in a candidate’s campaign in the Chilliwack-Hope by-election, I will restrain from making further analysis, including my seat projection.

A cumulative history graph of the polling since the 2009 general election is here: