NRG Research Poll: NDP 42, BCL 36, CON 13, GRN 10
A poll commissioned by the Independent Contractors and Businesses Association, conducted by NRG Research Group (link) had the following salient details:
Conducted February 7, 2012 to February 12, 2012, 600 sampled;
Party support:
BC NDP – 42%
BC Liberal – 36%
BC Conservatives – 13%
BC Greens – 10%
Without any polling methodology or detailed numbers (i.e. who was sampled, questions asked, etc.), these results can be treated with a grain of salt. With the sample size and error bounds, it is vaguely consistent with other polls.
If you are looking to make some headlines with a poll, it is always best to keep your sample sizes low, and to repeat the poll many times, and you will find the result you are looking for when you take it to the newspapers.
(February 17, 2012 @ 11:36):
A very small poll with no details on methodology, how can one take it seriously? Though it accomplished what was needed, a media hit.
No mention of how the people were polled, no mention of how the people were asked, and no mention of how many people were not sure who they would support.
I have not see much polling in BC that gives me much confidence as to where the support is at for the various parties.
I would like to see some decent ongoing tracking of how committed respondents are to the party they support and how committed they are to voting in the next election. That data will give us something more significant to look at and understand what is going.
(February 17, 2012 @ 12:47):
I was just told the NRG Research poll was a classic telephone interview one
(February 17, 2012 @ 15:02):
Here is the link to the details of the poll
http://www.nrgresearchgroup.com/press/pdf/16_Feb_2012_-_ICBA_Provincial_Poll_Results.pdf
(March 11, 2012 @ 15:32):
I’d never put faith in anything put out by the ICBA, especially when it comes to neutrality. They are one of the biggest overall donors to the Liberals, which is why I am unsurprised to see them oversell Liberal support to as high as 36%, meanwhile shorting BCC support by as much as nine points compared to previous polls.
For example, there’s just no way, with the Liberals in the tank, that their Lower Mainland numbers are anywhere close to 40%, let alone 42%, as those are numbers the party only managed to earn with little effort in the 2001 election. In 2005 and 2009 the Campbell Liberals were carried more by their stronger results in the Fraser Valley and into the interior.
VoteSmart BC, Stop Recall, and now these radio ads about the Dix memo in the 1990s (though that last one just makes me chuckle if that’s the best they can do).
All of their polls are going to be shaded by biased, loaded questions, just like if a labour union or a progressive think tank commissions a poll. The release Bernard posted above makes this clear, having quoted Phil Hochstein on *specific* initiatives by this government rather than vague, broad-brush references to the economy or job creation.