An Ipsos Reid Poll (link) sampling 1,002 people using an online panel between September 11 to September 18, 2012, had the following voter intentions:
BC NDP – 49%
BC Liberals – 32%
BC Conservatives – 12%
BC Greens – 6%
Other – 1%
The above results exclude an 18% which have an undecided preference.
Ipsos Reid’s last poll was done between June 5 to June 11 which indicated NDP support at 48%, BC Liberals at 29%, BC Conservatives at 16% and the Greens at 6%. So there has been a shift from the BC Conservatives to the BC Liberals, while the NDP continue to have their rock-solid support at nearly the half level.
This is also the first poll taken that concretely shows that the damage taken by the infighting of the BC Conservative Party is having an effect on polling numbers.
A first-pass seat projection with these results would have the Liberals at around 14 seats, while the NDP retain 69 and independents have 2 seats.