Angus Reid Poll – NDP 49, BCL 26, CON 16

An Angus Reid Poll (their link, local copy), polling 800 people between October 9 to 10 had the following voter intentions:

BC NDP – 49%
BC Liberals – 26%
BC Conservatives – 16%
BC Greens – 7%
Other/Independent – 2%

Regional Split:

Metro Vancouver: NDP 47 / BCL 29 / CON 15 / GRN 6 / Other 3
Vancouver Island: NDP 57 / BCL 21 / CON 12 / GRN 9 / Other 1
Interior: NDP 43 / BCL 26 / CON 22 / GRN 7 / Other 1
North: NDP 54 / BCL 22 / CON 13 / GRN 10 / Other 0

This poll is the first Angus Reid poll that is clearly taken after the fallout that has occurred in the BC Conservative Party. All things considered, a decline from 19% to 16% (within the 3.5% margin of error) is probably a pleasant unexpected surprise from those within the party, or a unpleasant unexpected surprise for the BC Liberals!

The regional split numbers do not contain much more information than the previous Angus Reid survey in September. The battleground area seems to be between the BC Liberals and NDP in the GVRD/FVRD, while there does appear to be some potential for three-way races in the Interior given the current numbers – the NDP will have a massive majority in the Nelson-Creston and Kootenay areas but the Kelowna area will be in play.

Adrian Dix continues to lead the polls with respect to his approval ratings – up 2% from 28% to 30%. The NDP also are 3% higher, but although this is statistically insignificant from the previous survey, the more important barometer is that they nearly control a majority of popular support in the polls and this will translate into the election being a race for the scraps, most of which are likely to be claimed by the BC Liberals at this point.

As the NDP rise in polls, the important issues correspondingly gravitate toward health care, housing and education, while the economy as an issue (the bastion of the BC Liberals) has dropped.

Finally, John Cummins‘ disapproval rating is 56%, which is significantly higher than the previous survey, and bordering Christy Clark‘s 65%. Notably, Cummins’ approval rating of 16% is less than Green leader Jane Sterk‘s rating of 22%. This is probably the most prevalent evidence of the BC Conservative infighting that has gone on.

Despite this, Chirsty Clark leads the negative score on the momentum scale, with 51% saying that their opinion of her has worsened in the last three months, compared to 33% for Cummins. The mathematically inclined could say this is because more people had an initially higher impression of Clark than Cummins.

Finally, when plugging the numbers into the mechanical seat calculator, I get the following projected seat split:

BC NDP – 81
BC Liberal – 2
Other – 2

As candidates continue to be nominated and confirmed, I will be in a better position to perform some better seat projections than a simple mechanical count. Suffice to say, however, with 49% of the vote to the NDP that they will form a massive majority government. Even if the BC Conservatives were to disappear, the NDP would still be in with a huge majority.