Justason Market Intelligence Poll – NDP 48, BCL 28, GRN 13

Justason Market Intelligence is a firm that is run by Barb Justason and they did a low sample poll back in March (link here). They also released a poll in October (link here) with the salient information:

Sample size: 539 BC Adults (standard error is 4.2%)
Methodology: Telephone/Online hybrid
Dates sampled: September 24 to October 1, 2012

The voter intentional results are as follows:

BC NDP – 48%
BC Liberals – 28%
BC Greens – 13%
BC Conservatives – 9%
Other – 1%

The analysis here is that this is vaguely consistent with their previous survey, with the NDP and Green party up slightly, while the rest of the parties down. With a 539 person sample, this is a fairly low sample and I will not get much further into it, other than to point out that the psychologically low threshold of 10% for the BC Conservative party, if they achieve this result in the next general election, clearly puts them on fringe party status. The regional split numbers would have such low sample numbers that they would not even be worth discussing – e.g. the survey results have the NDP doing better in the Metro Vancouver region (53%) compared to Vancouver Island (43%). Overall, this small survey is roughly consistent with the narrative that the NDP are significantly ahead, the BC Liberals are second, and the BC Conservatives and Greens are fighting for the electoral scraps.