One of the losers this election (other than being my own election prediction credibility) has been those of pollsters that were predicting the NDP winning a plurality of votes. Recall the polls leading up to the 2013 election date: The following is the absolute error of pollsters, in rank order: It is clear the top …
Category Archive: Polls
Last poll of the election – Angus Reid: NDP 45, BCL 36
In what will very likely be the last public poll done before the May 14, 2013 election, an Angus Reid Poll (their copy, local copy), polling 803 people between May 12-13, 2013 had the following voter intentions. I have also included the Angus Reid polls conducted in 2013 for comparison purposes: Analysis This poll is …
EKOS poll: 40.5 NDP, 34.5 BCL, 13.0 GRN
An EKOS Politics poll (their copy, local copy), surveying 861 people (780 decided) between May 10-12, 2013, using IVR technology had the following voter intentions, after projecting them across a “likely voter” model: Analysis The EKOS poll confirms the race tightening between the NDP and BC Liberals, but if a 6% differential continues for Election …
Angus Reid Poll: NDP 45, BCL 36
An Angus Reid Poll (their copy, local copy), polling 808 people between May 9 and May 10, 2013 had the following voter intentions. I have also included the Angus Reid polls conducted in 2013 for comparison purposes: Analysis There is a critical difference between this particular poll versus all of the other ones that have …
Justason Poll: NDP 45, BCL 31, GRN 14
A Justason Market Intelligence Poll (their link) that surveyed 700 people using an online poll between May 8-9, 2013 revealed the following voter intentions, noting that the 11% undecided are removed and the results normalized (thus leaving 592 responses): Analysis Justason’s polls have traditionally been less supportive of the BC Liberals. This is also the …
Ipsos-Reid Poll: NDP 43, BCL 37, GRN 10
An Ipsos-Reid poll (link here, local copy), sampling 800 people (723 decided) between May 8-9, 2013, revealed the following voter intentions, noting the following has been normalized to exclude the impact of undecided respondents: Analysis This poll, very close to the election day, continues the thesis that there is a tightening of the race between …
Hill + Knowlton Strategies Poll: NDP 41.1, BCL 34.6, GRN 13.6
A Hill and Knowlton Strategies poll (their link, local copy) conducted on May 7 and May 8, 2013 with 804 BC adult residents randomly selected from their “BC Perspectives Panel” and statistically weighted, revealed the following voter intentions (normalized to exclude undecided voters): BC NDP – 41.1% BC Liberal – 34.6% BC Green – 13.6% …
OraclePoll Research: NDP 41, BCL 37, GRN 12, CON 10
An OraclePoll Research, commissioned by the (Victoria) Times-Colonist newspaper (their link, local copy), surveying by telephone 1,000 people between May 5-7, 2013 had the following voter intentions (noting the results have been normalized to exclude 24% of the people that were undecided): BC NDP – 41% BC Liberal – 37% BC Green – 12% BC …
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