BC NDP – 42%
BC Liberal – 28%
BC Conservatives – 19%
BC Greens – 10%
Other – 1%

Metro Vancouver: NDP 42 / BCL 27 / CON 20 / GRN 10 / Other 1
Vancouver Island: NDP 51 / BCL 27 / CON 12 / GRN 9 / Other 1
Interior: NDP 37 / BCL 30 / CON 20 / GRN 12 / Other 0
North: NDP 43 / BCL 27 / CON 17 / GRN 3 / Other 10

Analysis

This poll is roughly consistent with the results of the previous Angus Reid survey at the end of October – the NDP are solidly in the lead, and it would be virtually equivalent to giving up the government if the Premier were to call a general election today.

The big change, which the media picked up on, from the previous poll is not necessarily the voting intention (which is within the margin of error of the previous poll and consistent with other polls performed recently), but rather the shift in perception about Adrian Dix‘s suitability for being premier – up from 19% to 26%.

The other strange anomaly was the Northern BC vote sample for “Other” candidates – if distributed correctly, the sample for the north would be around 80 to 100 people and that means that 8 to 10 people marked down “Other/Independent” as their preferred candidate. Is something brewing there?

Because I am actively involved in a candidate’s campaign in the Chilliwack-Hope by-election, I will restrain from making further analysis, including my seat projection.

A cumulative history graph of the polling since the 2009 general election is here:

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988 sampled; automated phone polling; regionally weighted, conducted on January 23, 2012.

Voting intentions:
BC NDP: 39%
BC Liberals: 26%
BC Conservatives: 22%
BC Greens: 9%
… implying 4% as “other”.

The only other data point concerning Forum Research polling was their December 15 survey, of which the results are roughly consistent with the previous poll. I find it somewhat frustrating that I cannot get access to the detailed survey results which would have given some more information on methodology and how they regionally weighted the results. Without this information, it is very difficult to get a feel of how much basis to put into these polling numbers.

I notice they do offer a projected seat split, with 57 seats for the NDP, 20 for the BC Liberals, 7 for the BC Conservatives and 1 for Vicki Huntington in Delta South. These numbers are somewhat consistent with a first-line pass of the popular vote, but geography starts to become much more of a focus when translating popular vote results to seats. I would not put much stock into this projection without seeing more information.

The general trend of this poll and others is that the BC Liberals have sunk far, far behind the NDP. This is not surprising considering the last year of events. Will it get better or worse for them?

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1045 people surveyed by telephone; standard error 3%; all people surveyed on December 15, 2011.

Indicated voting intention is as follows:

BC NDP: 34%
BC Liberals: 23%
BC Conservatives: 23%
BC Greens: 15%
… implying 5% as “other”.

This survey is consistent with others showing a steady erosion of the BC Liberal support base; this survey does show an increased amount of support for the BC Conservatives and a slight cannibalization of NDP support to the Conservatives as well, which may be interesting.

The other result is the relatively high performance of the BC Green party, which has always tended to be a proxy for vote parking for undecided voters, but is consistent with the previous poll (Oraclepoll Research in late November).

As there is limited information on the poll details and also this is the first time I have seen Forum Research do a BC provincial poll, I will reserve further judgement until we see them release another poll in the future. My intuition suggests that this poll overstates BC Conservative and BC Green support, at least at present.

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The first data point is a survey commissioned by Integrity BC, hiring Oraclepoll Research to do a survey on various BC political issues. The link to the detailed report is here: (their link, local link).

Salient information is that the survey was conducted with a 600 person sample, standard error is 4%, conducted November 22-25, 2011 by telephone.

When people were asked as to their voting intentions, 12% were undecided and the remainder (normalized result) stated as follows:

BC NDP: 44%
BC Liberals: 25%
BC Greens: 16%
BC Conservatives: 15%

Although the sample space is relatively small, this does generally confirm the slide in BC Liberal support that has been happening since Premier Christy Clark has taken office. The Green Party would be ecstatic at this level of support, but other polls currently do not confirm this level of support.

I generally am not going to over-analyze this poll given the sample space and the intent of the poll (to market Integrity BC’s name out in the media), but will include this in the polling statistics.

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BC NDP – 40%
BC Liberal – 31%
BC Conservatives – 18%
BC Greens – 8%
Other – 3%

Metro Vancouver: NDP 43 / BCL 31 / CON 17 / GRN 7 / Other 3
Vancouver Island: NDP 39 / BCL 30 / CON 18 / GRN 11 / Other 2
Interior: NDP 35 / BCL 34 / CON 20 / GRN 8 / Other 4
North: NDP 37 / BCL 34 / CON 20 / GRN 8 / Other 0

Analysis

The last Angus Reid poll was back in March 2011 and I commented that there was a “honeymoon” period for Christy Clark. Now that reality has set in for the government, their existing numbers are showing significant erosion to John Cummins and the Conservatives.

The survey kindly provided a breakdown of the 2009 election voters vs. the current survey, where 8% of the people that voted for the NDP in 2009 now stated they lean Conservative, while 21% of BC Liberal voters in 2009 stated they are currently leaning Conservative.

The Greens continue to be a marginal force. I wonder if Jane Sterk is considering an Elizabeth May strategy of “putting all your eggs to win a single seat” – with the notable exception that her party is financially unable to mount such a strategy.

The regional split figures are not too surprising given the overall results.

The big alarming statistic in the poll is that Adrian Dix‘s approval rating is virtually at the same level as Premier Christy Clark‘s rating (40% vs. 39%, respectively) – this spells big trouble for the BC Liberals. The line of “a vote for the Conservatives is a vote for the NDP” is not going to work simply because the NDP have their own motivated voting block which should propel them into government. The question at this point appears to be: who is going to form the official opposition?

If I was odds-making, even before this survey, I would estimate the NDP has about an 80-85% chance of forming the next government in May 2013. There are a couple ways which I believe would sink the NDP’s chances from present, but I do not believe that Adrian Dix will fall into the traps that the government will inevitably set in 2012 – one of which is the handling the collective bargaining agreements that are up for negotiation. Carole James would have taken the bait, but not Dix.

Port Moody-Coquitlam By-Election

The ultimate confirmation of these numbers are going to be the results of the upcoming by-election in the Port Moody-Coquitlam riding. Iain Black resigned on October 3, 2011 and the Premier has six months to call a by-election. Despite the recent poll numbers, quantitatively on my books the riding would lean BC Liberal, albeit very narrowly. Qualitatively, I would give it to the NDP narrowly. In such narrow elections, I would have to wait for the candidates to be known.

If the Conservatives run a candidate in this election (which I generally believe would be a mistake on their part), it may provide ammunition for the BC Liberals in the event of a narrow NDP victory that a vote for the Conservatives is a vote for the NDP. The only way the Conservatives can win in such a by-election is if they run a candidate and come in first or second. I don’t see that happening.

Seat projections

Using some black magic, I offer the following seat projection given the numbers from the Angus Reid Poll. I will do a riding-by-riding projection sometime in 2012 after the by-election.

BC NDP – 60 seats (40%)
BC Liberals – 16 seats (31%)
BC Conservatives – 7 seats (18%)
BC Greens – 0 seats (8%)
Independents – 2 seats (Vicki Huntington, Delta South; Bob Simpson, Cariboo North assuming the NDP does not run a candidate) (3%)

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Her campaign spent $35,006.31 on the election, gathering 379 votes. At a cost of $92.36/vote, this was a very expensive election campaign.

The vast majority of her campaign funds were provided by Garibaldi Springs Properties Ltd. ($25,000), and Douglas R. Day ($8941.82).

To give some reference to these numbers, Christy Clark‘s campaign spent $75,117 and NDP candidate David Eby‘s campaign spent $65,130, obtaining 7757 votes and 7193 votes, respectively.

The dollars-per-vote metric is a misused statistic in political analysis which is why I will not delve too deeply on why a minor party candidate would want to spend $35,000 – other than the fact that they legitimately thought they could win the seat.

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BC NDP – 45%
BC Liberals – 38%
BC Conservatives – 12%
BC Greens – 6%

Excluded were 20% undecideds and assuming the sample was randomized and using a normal distribution at 95% confidence gives an error range of 3.1%.

There was also some supplementary questions regarding leadership of the four major party candidates, but the only non-surprise surprise that is gleaned out of the data is the fact that more women support the NDP and Adrian Dix than the BC Liberals and Christy Clark (54% of women support the NDP vs. 32% BC Liberal). The rest of the metrics concerning leader are proxies for general partisanship, mainly that BC Liberal supporters support the Premier, while NDP supporters support Adrian Dix, which is no shock.

Poll Commentary:

The other note is that the BC Conservatives are slowly dragging themselves out of the wilderness and should be acknowledged as the “third party” in the province at the moment; this used to be the Green Party, but the Green Party has become seriously compromised as the environment continues to drift off the political landscape. As the BC Liberal party has done everything it can to advertise the existence of John Cummins, this number should rise in future polls, especially since Cummins has done a remarkable job of getting his name in the media on provincial-related matters.

The above poll is remarkably similar to my July 17, 2011 seat projection (NDP: 50, BCL: 28, CON: 5, IND: 2), which is currently my working model. There are scenarios at play that involve larger NDP majorities (up to 70 seats!), but I am finding it very difficult at present to conceive of scenarios where the NDP will not form a majority government.

A lot can change in 18 months, but Adrian Dix has shown himself to be much more of an opposition leader than Carole James was. There are several data points I can point to that easily confirm his political savvy – the latest one being supporting the 2 cent gasoline tax for Translink along with the BC Liberals. Dix continues to be underestimated and dismissed, but this is at the peril of those that have those beliefs. The analog that I like to use is that Stephen Harper is to the political right as Adrian Dix is to the political left; both are very intelligent, policy-driven leaders that are electable as credible contenders for government. Stephen Harper managed to shed right-wing baggage that allowed him to achieve something most people said he never could – a majority government. It worked for Stephen Harper and Adrian Dix will be doing the same between now and May 2013.

Permalink | One comment | Filed under category Commentary, Polls.

The by-election expense reports can be found here, but the more salient detail is how much money the major parties have raised in the meantime:

We can see that the BC Liberals have a roughly 5:3 lead on the NDP in terms of raw fundraising ability.  However, there is no visibility on expenses incurred by the parties relating to their ordinary operation.  If we use 2010 as a barometer of activity, when excluding the direct costs of fundraising and transfers out, the BC Liberals spent $3.7 million, while the NDP spent about $1.9M.  When you pro-rate the expenses over a period of 4.3 months, you have the following net surplus by the respective parties, using monetary contributions as the “revenue” base:

BC Liberal – $766,000 surplus
BC NDP – $677,000 surplus
BC Greens – $3,300 surplus

One significant offsetting factor was that the BC Liberal leadership candidates collectively raised $2.2M in monetary contributions that did not make their way to BC Liberal coffers, while the (major) NDP leadership candidates collectively raised about $420,000.  None of this speculation regarding the political parties can be confirmed at all until parties have filed in their 2011 financing reports by the end of March, 2012.

Also by virtue of not running a candidate in the by-election, there is no visibility with respect to the BC Conservative party.

BC First, interestingly enough, raised $5,400 through the contributions of 121 donors. Their candidate in the by-election, Danielle Alie, did not report her expenses by the deadline and will have to cough up $500 to file in her return late.

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NDP leadership candidates:

Adrian Dix was able to raise the most amount of funding.  The media also reported that he spent the most in the campaign, which was true.  However, the big ticket item was the “transfers” category, all of which was given to the NDP at various periods of time both before and after the leadership contest.  This is because of the NDP requirement for candidates to donate a certain percentage of their fundraising proceeds to the provincial party.

When you remove the transfers, Adrian Dix’s campaign spent $124,874, Mike Farnworth’s campaign spent $68,573 and John Horgan’s campaign spent $71,715.

BC Liberal leadership candidates:

On the BC Liberal side, Kevin Falcon’s campaign was able to raise the most amount of money, although Christy Clark and George Abbott’s campaigns were not that far behind.   The proportion of corporate vs. individual donations was roughly similar in all four candidates.  The only other number that sticks out is Kevin Falcon’s $137,055 bill in personal expenses, of which $113,175 was for airfare.  That is quite some travel budget!

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Analysis:
1. The BC Liberals have much larger fundraising capacity than the rest of the parties. They were able to net about $4.3 million over 2010 and they have $2.4 million cash on hand to pay off their $2.8 million in election debt. Their debt currently costs prime plus 2.25% (prime currently is 3%) and is slated for repayment on December 1, 2012. Corporations attributed 64% of the revenue base, while individuals accounted for 25%.

2. The BC NDP is in worse financial shape than the BC Liberals – they have roughly $1.5 million in election-related debt to pay off and $750k cash on hand to offset that. They were able to net $1.57 million in 2010 and should be able to pay off their election debts in 2011. The bulk of their debt is at a credit union and they are paying an average of 4.3% interest on the loan amount. About $600k of the loan is slated for repayment on March 1, 2012, while most of the rest is on demand. The big difference between the BC Liberals and NDP is that the NDP own the land and building that make up their headquarters, an asset currently worth $1.37M on the NDP’s balance sheet. Individuals contributed 82% of the revenue base, while trade unions were 13%, which is somewhat contrary to the instinctive public opinion.

3. The BC Green Party has about $37,000 in the bank account and a few thousand in accrued liabilities. They managed to raise $140,000 in 2010, but spent nearly as much in various expenses. Individuals contributed 95% of the revenue base.

4. The BC Conservatives has about $13,000 in the bank, $7,000 in liabilities. They raised $61,000 and spent $28,000. What is interesting is that they managed to find 1,180 people to contribute money to the party. Individuals contributed 91% of the revenue base.

5. It would appear that the BC Liberals are advantaged in terms of money if an election were called today, but their relative advantage over the other parties would be greater if an election were held later.

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